英國劍橋大學的研究團隊在《Neuron》科學期刊有一篇科學研究（其他新聞見這裡、這裡）很有意思，他們發現，真正讓「賭徒」願意繼續賭的關鍵不是在「贏錢」的剎那，而是在「差點贏錢」的剎那──如果你拉個拉吧機（吃角子老虎），差一個花色就全部同一色！雖然還是輸了，但這種「差點擊中」（near-miss）的感覺，讓他如電擊般的興奮、愉悅，讓他可以玩得更久！
這是怎麼回事？
科學家找來了15名志願者，這些人都是普通人，並不是賭徒。科學家拿一套特別設計過的角子老虎機讓他們玩，一邊監視他們腦部的狀況，結果科學家發現，當他們「贏」了，腦部的專門負責回饋的部位striatum與insula cortex會開始運動，這個區塊可以為人類帶來很愉悅的效果，吸毒的時候也是這個區塊在運動。賭博嘛，贏了以後如同吸毒，應該是正常的。不過，科學家同時也監測到，當他們「差點贏」的時候，儘管輸了，腦部的同一部位（striatum與insula cortex）也同樣的在運動。
有趣的是，事後這些志願者填寫問卷，表示「差點贏」的經歷是不愉快的，可見他們知道，他們是輸了，不過，他們的大腦卻不是這麼說。雖然此經驗不愉快，但他們的大腦卻製造了就像「贏」的時候相同的興奮感，就是這個興奮感讓他們一再而再的回到賭桌上繼續玩。科學家改變了這個電腦程式，讓這台機器不會造成「差點贏」，結果發現人們在上面玩的時間會比較短。反之，若讓這台機器不斷的讓玩家「差點贏」，玩家坐在前面玩的平均時間就會跟著拉長。
不過，這個觀察其實沒什麼，我們都去過拉斯維加斯賭城裡的賭場，每次拉吧一次，就會有一種感覺：這裡的機器是不是都有被「控制」？讓我們故意好像快要中，或是中獎也只能中一次？我們都知道，若真的有心操控這個結果，讓我們每次「差點贏」，會拉長我們玩的時間？
我覺得真的有趣的是，科學家用另一個角度來解釋這件事──
科學家說，由於腦中已將「差點贏」弄成好像是「贏」了，久而久之，在一些好賭客的心中，就會以為「差點贏 = 準備要贏」，也會在好賭客中流傳一些「諺語」譬如「今天差點贏，明天就要贏了」之類的。科學家解釋，愛賭的人已經將「差點贏」視為一個「特殊狀況」(special event)，是「贏」之前的前兆。
但事實上，「差點贏」根本就不是特殊狀況，它只是「輸的一種」；若計算機率，並不會因為「差點贏」而改變下一次贏的機率，但，腦部的天生運作，讓我們就是覺得「差點贏」以後，贏的那天就不遠矣，連賭桌上這種幾乎全靠獨立事件機率的事情也是如此相信！
科學家的解釋，可以說成是「差點贏」讓玩家一種「贏家的感覺」，也可以說成是「差點贏」讓他有一種「贏家的氣勢」。
關於「贏家的氣勢」，讓我想起四年前的一段對話──
在寫《別學北極熊》期間，我曾和一位矽谷成功創業家有一段對話，後來因對方決定低調完全沒有寫出來，他曾對我解釋過創業的一個奇特現象，就他們現在看到，「連續創業家」(serial entrepreneur)的成功機率非常高，可能比當初第一次創業成功還要高了幾倍，Why ?
我說，唔，是因為他原本就蠻厲害的，所以得到第一個成功。然後也因為第一個成功得到了信賴，因此引來第二個成功……以此類推。
但這位創業家以我兩個字送給我：「氣勢」。
他說，古代過來所有的王者都像滾雪球，愈滾愈厲害，決定誰能「走到最後」，和「氣勢」有一定的關係。當時，我對這點也只是聽聽罷了，畢竟我目標是要寫一本集結成功經驗的書，目標讀者是一般創業家，這是「雞生蛋蛋生雞」的問題，創業家得到第一個大成功之前，「氣勢」自然沒有；得到第一個成功後，其實有沒有「氣勢」也不是很重要了。
不過，這篇劍橋大學的最新研究又給我們另一個對於「氣勢」的想法。「差點贏」，可以為創業家帶來一股「贏家的氣勢」，以及繼續走下去的勇氣！
如果真如這位老創業家所說的，「氣勢」很重要，那，我們一邊想辦法「贏」，也不要吝嗇多給自己一點「差點贏」的經驗！
當然，這「差點贏」不是真的拿東西去賭。如果要拿東西去賭，則「差點贏」都還算是「輸」，每天都來一次「差點贏」，只會愈來愈衰弱罷了，不很妥當。但是如果一個人能找到一個方法，在不必成本抑或非常低成本的情況下去擊打目標，不只是每一年，而是每一天，都有好幾次的「差點贏」的體驗呢？
這些體驗甚至可以小到，譬如，寄一封信給一個絕不可能約出來見面吃飯的人，邀邀看。平時覺得這樣很浪費時間，現在為了得到一次「差點贏」的體驗，就試下去了吧！
譬如，未婚的人士就開口邀一個心儀的男/女同事出去吃個飯，聊公司，不經意的？平時會覺得不必這麼勉強，現在為了圖一個「差點贏」的體驗，怕什麼，試下去吧！
譬如，吆喝一場團購，號召同事一起買自己某個朋友的東西？平常不好意思做這種事，怕什麼，就試試看了吧！
這些，都不是經過計算後的動作，因此機會不大，但也沒有損失。只要出手，至少就會「有機會」，而且會比原本原地踏步還要前進一格。最差的狀況，至少可以為自己建立一大堆「差點贏」的事件，即使都沒中獎也有「氣勢」。有趣的是，一般上班是不可能給自己太多次的失敗機會的，所以我們默默的工作，每一次出兵都是「集體動作」，上報、上報、上報，簽呈、簽呈、簽呈，都是經過計畫去執行的，但在層層的保護下，一般的我們個人，是不可能經過那種「差點贏」的感覺，所以愈來愈陷在一種上班族的小螺絲釘的「偏安」的心境中。現在，趁處於待業，或工作減緩之中；有的人在等著可能出來的裁員令，公司前景渾沌不明，這段時間，回歸個人，有一件事可以做──
就是：讓自己多做一些「差點贏」的事，從這邊開始多多的做，慢慢的鍛鍊自己心中的那個巨人。自己的身體是最大的發電機，找到那個「開關」，潛能有機會完全釋放。這段時間是轉折期，正是需要這些潛能的時候，今天就開始行動，讓自己不斷的「差點贏」，或許，身邊的一些狀況，會奇妙的開始改變。
(摘自 Mr.6)
NO lady luck: Gambling near-misses can be addictive
Researchers from the United Kingdom found that gamblers who have near-misses while playing slot machines are stimulating parts of their brains that involve addictions in humans and increase their desire to continue gambling.
The article “Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry” was published in the February 12, 2009 issue of the journal Neuron.Its authors are Luke Clark, Andrew J. Lawrence, Frances Astley-Jones, and Nicola Gray, all from the Behavioral and Clinical Neuroscience Institute, Department of Experimental Psychology, at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom.
They state in the abstract to their paper that “’Near-miss’ events, where unsuccessful outcomes are proximal to the jackpot, increase gambling propensity and may be associated with the addictiveness of gambling.”In other words, when a person almost wins at a gambling game, circuits in the brain are activated that strengthens the motivation to gamble more.Such actions within the brain may be the genetic link to gambling addictions.Such neurocognitive mechanisms in the brain, however, are little studied in the medical profession as to just how strong they are in motivating gamblers to gamble more—and, maybe, eventually to becoming addicted to gambling.
Consequently, the U.K. researchers decided to study these behavioral and neural responses to these “near-misses” in gambling.
A slot machine (also called a fruit machine, poker machine, or one-armed bandit) is a casino gambling machine with three or more reels reels that spin when a button is pushed (or a level is pulled on the side of the machine).The results are shown in brightly colored images of fruit (such as cherries), numerals, letters, diamonds, hearts, bells, cartoon characters, actors or celebrities, or other such easily recognizable symbols.An example of a “near-miss” would be two cherries in a slot machine, where a “full-miss” would be only one cherry. Three cherries (or three of the same symbol) would result in a money payout to the user from the slot machine (the casino, such as the ones in Las Vegas, Nevada).
Dr. Luke Clark, one of the authors of the study, stated, “We devised a series of experiments to elicit near-miss and control phenomena in the laboratory and used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to explore the brain mechanisms underlying these cognitive distortions.” [News-Medical.Net: Sunday, February 15, 2009): "New insight into why gambling is so attractive to some"]They stated in the abstract to the paper, “Compared to full-misses, near-misses were experienced as less pleasant, but increased desire to play.”
As stated earlier they used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which measures blood flow in the brain or spinal cord of humans, to study the ventral striatum and medial frontal cortex regions of the brain.
The researchers also used a questionnaire to ask gambling-related questions to the participatants.Both regions of the brain, which were analyzed in this study, help in the processing of rewards (along with intense stimuli associated with aversions and the abusee of illicit drugs), planning of cognitive behaviors and personality expressions, and the correcting of anti-social behaviors.
As such, the researchers wanted to see if there is increased activity in these areas of the brain when people are gambling, especially when “near-misses” occur while gambling.They found that there was, indeed, significant activity in these areas of the brain when “near-misses” occurred while gambling.The researchers found that the participants found “near-misses” more “unpleasant” than “full-misses.”However, the participants had more desire to continue to play the gambling game when they had “near-misses.”
Clark stated, “Gamblers often interpret near-misses as special events, which encourage them to continue to gamble. Our findings show that the brain responds to near-misses as if a win has been delivered, even though the result is technically a loss." [News-Medical.Net]
Dr. Clark added, "By linking psychological and neurobiological accounts of gambling, these data inform our understanding of gambling behavior within society, and by extrapolation, the capacity of gambling to become addictive and pathological." [News-Medical.Net]
The U.K. researchers concluded in their paper, “These data indicate that near-misses invigorate gambling through the anomalous recruitment of reward circuitry, despite the objective lack of monetary reinforcement on these trials.”
That is, even though a “near-miss” does not reward the gambler with money, they are strengthened in their desire to continue gambling. It is similar to a feeling that they didn’t quite win but a true monetary win is almost within their reach--if they will only try one more time! Or, a second time, or a third....To learn more about gambling addictions, go to Gamblers Anonymous and HelpGuide.org’s website “Gambling Addiction and Problem Gambling.”The Gamblers Anonymous website asks the question: How can you tell whether you are a compulsive gambler?
It answers, "Only you can make that decision. Most people turn to Gamblers Anonymous when they become willing to admit that gambling has them licked. Also in Gamblers Anonymous, a compulsive gambler is described as a person whose gambling has caused growing and continuing problems in any department of his or her life."
"Many Gamblers Anonymous members went through terrifying experiences before they were ready to accept help. Others were faced with a slow, subtle deterioration which finally brought them to the point of admitting defeat."
這是怎麼回事？
科學家找來了15名志願者，這些人都是普通人，並不是賭徒。科學家拿一套特別設計過的角子老虎機讓他們玩，一邊監視他們腦部的狀況，結果科學家發現，當他們「贏」了，腦部的專門負責回饋的部位striatum與insula cortex會開始運動，這個區塊可以為人類帶來很愉悅的效果，吸毒的時候也是這個區塊在運動。賭博嘛，贏了以後如同吸毒，應該是正常的。不過，科學家同時也監測到，當他們「差點贏」的時候，儘管輸了，腦部的同一部位（striatum與insula cortex）也同樣的在運動。
有趣的是，事後這些志願者填寫問卷，表示「差點贏」的經歷是不愉快的，可見他們知道，他們是輸了，不過，他們的大腦卻不是這麼說。雖然此經驗不愉快，但他們的大腦卻製造了就像「贏」的時候相同的興奮感，就是這個興奮感讓他們一再而再的回到賭桌上繼續玩。科學家改變了這個電腦程式，讓這台機器不會造成「差點贏」，結果發現人們在上面玩的時間會比較短。反之，若讓這台機器不斷的讓玩家「差點贏」，玩家坐在前面玩的平均時間就會跟著拉長。
不過，這個觀察其實沒什麼，我們都去過拉斯維加斯賭城裡的賭場，每次拉吧一次，就會有一種感覺：這裡的機器是不是都有被「控制」？讓我們故意好像快要中，或是中獎也只能中一次？我們都知道，若真的有心操控這個結果，讓我們每次「差點贏」，會拉長我們玩的時間？
我覺得真的有趣的是，科學家用另一個角度來解釋這件事──
科學家說，由於腦中已將「差點贏」弄成好像是「贏」了，久而久之，在一些好賭客的心中，就會以為「差點贏 = 準備要贏」，也會在好賭客中流傳一些「諺語」譬如「今天差點贏，明天就要贏了」之類的。科學家解釋，愛賭的人已經將「差點贏」視為一個「特殊狀況」(special event)，是「贏」之前的前兆。
但事實上，「差點贏」根本就不是特殊狀況，它只是「輸的一種」；若計算機率，並不會因為「差點贏」而改變下一次贏的機率，但，腦部的天生運作，讓我們就是覺得「差點贏」以後，贏的那天就不遠矣，連賭桌上這種幾乎全靠獨立事件機率的事情也是如此相信！
科學家的解釋，可以說成是「差點贏」讓玩家一種「贏家的感覺」，也可以說成是「差點贏」讓他有一種「贏家的氣勢」。
關於「贏家的氣勢」，讓我想起四年前的一段對話──
在寫《別學北極熊》期間，我曾和一位矽谷成功創業家有一段對話，後來因對方決定低調完全沒有寫出來，他曾對我解釋過創業的一個奇特現象，就他們現在看到，「連續創業家」(serial entrepreneur)的成功機率非常高，可能比當初第一次創業成功還要高了幾倍，Why ?
我說，唔，是因為他原本就蠻厲害的，所以得到第一個成功。然後也因為第一個成功得到了信賴，因此引來第二個成功……以此類推。
但這位創業家以我兩個字送給我：「氣勢」。
他說，古代過來所有的王者都像滾雪球，愈滾愈厲害，決定誰能「走到最後」，和「氣勢」有一定的關係。當時，我對這點也只是聽聽罷了，畢竟我目標是要寫一本集結成功經驗的書，目標讀者是一般創業家，這是「雞生蛋蛋生雞」的問題，創業家得到第一個大成功之前，「氣勢」自然沒有；得到第一個成功後，其實有沒有「氣勢」也不是很重要了。
不過，這篇劍橋大學的最新研究又給我們另一個對於「氣勢」的想法。「差點贏」，可以為創業家帶來一股「贏家的氣勢」，以及繼續走下去的勇氣！
如果真如這位老創業家所說的，「氣勢」很重要，那，我們一邊想辦法「贏」，也不要吝嗇多給自己一點「差點贏」的經驗！
當然，這「差點贏」不是真的拿東西去賭。如果要拿東西去賭，則「差點贏」都還算是「輸」，每天都來一次「差點贏」，只會愈來愈衰弱罷了，不很妥當。但是如果一個人能找到一個方法，在不必成本抑或非常低成本的情況下去擊打目標，不只是每一年，而是每一天，都有好幾次的「差點贏」的體驗呢？
這些體驗甚至可以小到，譬如，寄一封信給一個絕不可能約出來見面吃飯的人，邀邀看。平時覺得這樣很浪費時間，現在為了得到一次「差點贏」的體驗，就試下去了吧！
譬如，未婚的人士就開口邀一個心儀的男/女同事出去吃個飯，聊公司，不經意的？平時會覺得不必這麼勉強，現在為了圖一個「差點贏」的體驗，怕什麼，試下去吧！
譬如，吆喝一場團購，號召同事一起買自己某個朋友的東西？平常不好意思做這種事，怕什麼，就試試看了吧！
這些，都不是經過計算後的動作，因此機會不大，但也沒有損失。只要出手，至少就會「有機會」，而且會比原本原地踏步還要前進一格。最差的狀況，至少可以為自己建立一大堆「差點贏」的事件，即使都沒中獎也有「氣勢」。有趣的是，一般上班是不可能給自己太多次的失敗機會的，所以我們默默的工作，每一次出兵都是「集體動作」，上報、上報、上報，簽呈、簽呈、簽呈，都是經過計畫去執行的，但在層層的保護下，一般的我們個人，是不可能經過那種「差點贏」的感覺，所以愈來愈陷在一種上班族的小螺絲釘的「偏安」的心境中。現在，趁處於待業，或工作減緩之中；有的人在等著可能出來的裁員令，公司前景渾沌不明，這段時間，回歸個人，有一件事可以做──
就是：讓自己多做一些「差點贏」的事，從這邊開始多多的做，慢慢的鍛鍊自己心中的那個巨人。自己的身體是最大的發電機，找到那個「開關」，潛能有機會完全釋放。這段時間是轉折期，正是需要這些潛能的時候，今天就開始行動，讓自己不斷的「差點贏」，或許，身邊的一些狀況，會奇妙的開始改變。
(摘自 Mr.6)
NO lady luck: Gambling near-misses can be addictive
Researchers from the United Kingdom found that gamblers who have near-misses while playing slot machines are stimulating parts of their brains that involve addictions in humans and increase their desire to continue gambling.
The article “Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry” was published in the February 12, 2009 issue of the journal Neuron.Its authors are Luke Clark, Andrew J. Lawrence, Frances Astley-Jones, and Nicola Gray, all from the Behavioral and Clinical Neuroscience Institute, Department of Experimental Psychology, at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom.
They state in the abstract to their paper that “’Near-miss’ events, where unsuccessful outcomes are proximal to the jackpot, increase gambling propensity and may be associated with the addictiveness of gambling.”In other words, when a person almost wins at a gambling game, circuits in the brain are activated that strengthens the motivation to gamble more.Such actions within the brain may be the genetic link to gambling addictions.Such neurocognitive mechanisms in the brain, however, are little studied in the medical profession as to just how strong they are in motivating gamblers to gamble more—and, maybe, eventually to becoming addicted to gambling.
Consequently, the U.K. researchers decided to study these behavioral and neural responses to these “near-misses” in gambling.
A slot machine (also called a fruit machine, poker machine, or one-armed bandit) is a casino gambling machine with three or more reels reels that spin when a button is pushed (or a level is pulled on the side of the machine).The results are shown in brightly colored images of fruit (such as cherries), numerals, letters, diamonds, hearts, bells, cartoon characters, actors or celebrities, or other such easily recognizable symbols.An example of a “near-miss” would be two cherries in a slot machine, where a “full-miss” would be only one cherry. Three cherries (or three of the same symbol) would result in a money payout to the user from the slot machine (the casino, such as the ones in Las Vegas, Nevada).
Dr. Luke Clark, one of the authors of the study, stated, “We devised a series of experiments to elicit near-miss and control phenomena in the laboratory and used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to explore the brain mechanisms underlying these cognitive distortions.” [News-Medical.Net: Sunday, February 15, 2009): "New insight into why gambling is so attractive to some"]They stated in the abstract to the paper, “Compared to full-misses, near-misses were experienced as less pleasant, but increased desire to play.”
As stated earlier they used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which measures blood flow in the brain or spinal cord of humans, to study the ventral striatum and medial frontal cortex regions of the brain.
The researchers also used a questionnaire to ask gambling-related questions to the participatants.Both regions of the brain, which were analyzed in this study, help in the processing of rewards (along with intense stimuli associated with aversions and the abusee of illicit drugs), planning of cognitive behaviors and personality expressions, and the correcting of anti-social behaviors.
As such, the researchers wanted to see if there is increased activity in these areas of the brain when people are gambling, especially when “near-misses” occur while gambling.They found that there was, indeed, significant activity in these areas of the brain when “near-misses” occurred while gambling.The researchers found that the participants found “near-misses” more “unpleasant” than “full-misses.”However, the participants had more desire to continue to play the gambling game when they had “near-misses.”
Clark stated, “Gamblers often interpret near-misses as special events, which encourage them to continue to gamble. Our findings show that the brain responds to near-misses as if a win has been delivered, even though the result is technically a loss." [News-Medical.Net]
Dr. Clark added, "By linking psychological and neurobiological accounts of gambling, these data inform our understanding of gambling behavior within society, and by extrapolation, the capacity of gambling to become addictive and pathological." [News-Medical.Net]
The U.K. researchers concluded in their paper, “These data indicate that near-misses invigorate gambling through the anomalous recruitment of reward circuitry, despite the objective lack of monetary reinforcement on these trials.”
That is, even though a “near-miss” does not reward the gambler with money, they are strengthened in their desire to continue gambling. It is similar to a feeling that they didn’t quite win but a true monetary win is almost within their reach--if they will only try one more time! Or, a second time, or a third....To learn more about gambling addictions, go to Gamblers Anonymous and HelpGuide.org’s website “Gambling Addiction and Problem Gambling.”The Gamblers Anonymous website asks the question: How can you tell whether you are a compulsive gambler?
It answers, "Only you can make that decision. Most people turn to Gamblers Anonymous when they become willing to admit that gambling has them licked. Also in Gamblers Anonymous, a compulsive gambler is described as a person whose gambling has caused growing and continuing problems in any department of his or her life."
"Many Gamblers Anonymous members went through terrifying experiences before they were ready to accept help. Others were faced with a slow, subtle deterioration which finally brought them to the point of admitting defeat."
