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「反向決策策略」，教大家怎麼巧妙的預先探知市場的風向來「定價」。
這位作者很有意思，他竟然懂得使用搜尋引擎系統，分析出會搜尋到他的潛在客戶大約是多少人，再乘以一個點擊率（即多少人看到廣告會點進來，他是算1%），再乘以轉換率（即多少人點進來會真的購買，他是算1.5%），就是可能購買的人數，然後，他可以計算出下這麼多廣告所需要的廣告成本，拿這個成本去除以可能購買的人數，就是最低的定價了。
這個假設是在點擊率與轉換率真的如他所預期的情況下，少估一點、多估一點，都會影響定價的準確性，但它至少是一個很好的開始──我們是有可能透過周邊的蛛絲馬跡，去巧妙的做出「定價」，然後再反向來確認我們的應投入成本，如果環境改變了，此「定價」亦會改變，以致於投入成本也可以早一步的開始調整。
要如何配置才可以充份且有效的配置人力？ 不斷的舉辦小型的徵才說明會，讓潛在的人員可以聽到新事業部的機會，在每場活動中，調整定價，丟出來給潛在的應徵者嘗試，看看哪一個方向最讓人們喜愛，也從這邊去「反向」定出價格與預期目標。對一個人事成本相對高的公司來說，管理，不再只是徵才、教育訓練、留人策略這些而已，它背後要有絕對的「財務策略」，而這個財務支持，不能被動的等著市場的反應，而要「主動出擊」，透過其他巧妙的方式去預期可以的定價，再反向回來確認自己能否達成自設的目標、客戶的期望，而此定價可能是依著趨勢的變動而浮動的，這樣公司才能在保持價格競爭力的同時，能夠符合股東對公司的期望──賺錢！
Amy brings up a great point and motivates me to finish a post I've had sitting around for awhile. Most folks try and make something and then they slap a price on it. Often folks then discover some nasty things about their product. Either the market can't bear a product at that price, or they aren't sitting on a profitable business.
One tool in your arsenal which I rarely ever see used is to use a product's theoretical price to frame what you need to build. So how do you come up with that theoretical price ahead of time?If you plan on making a big part of your living from selling something online, I have a very interesting strategy for you.
The too long; didn't read of it is this:
1.Look up the cost per click of a term from Google Adwords that you conceivably will use to advertise your product.
2.Take that cost per click amount and divide by 0.015.
3.You're done. Build something to justify charging that amount.
Steps 1 and 2 above will give you a number that is a pretty decent ballpark of what you'd need to make on average from a single customer so that you can at least break even on Google Adwords expenses.
Let me show you how valuable this can be by telling you a story of a product/business I've considered starting, and then I'll show you how this formula is developed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I love reading. I especially love speed reading. You can't speed read everything, because it takes some of the fun out of reading things like fiction. But for business books, blog posts, and magazine articles, it's a huge time saver. So I'd like to distill my speed reading knowledge into a product and sell it. I think I want to make a short ebook on speed reading and maybe sell it for $20. Sound good?We'll let's just cool our jets before making this book and see what Adwords can tell us.
If you go over to Adwords you can use their Keyword Tool (you'll need an Adwords account to get price data). Let's look up the exact phrase “speed reading”[speed reading] gets: 8,100 searches a month in the US on Google. $1.53 per click Knowing this data we can start making some assumptions.
Let's pretend I took an Adword out to my speed reading landing page or online store. Let's pretend my ad gets a 1% click through rate. That means 1 out of 100 people who might see my ad in Google click it. That's a pretty conservative estimate, but not a bad place to start. So how many clicks (visitors) will we get per month:
8,100 * 0.01 = 81 clicks
How much will we end up spending on ads then to reach all 81 potential customers? 81 clicks * $1.53 per click = $123.93
Now let's pretend we can convert 1.5% of those visitors to customers. 1.5% is fairly average conversion rate that we could hope to achieve.
81 clicks * 0.015 = 1.215 customers per month
So to figure out our product revenue, we'll make:
1.215 * $20 = $24.30 per month!
Woah, hold on. Am I reading this right?Yep.
It's going to cost you on average $100 a month to make $24.30 in revenue a month.Well my intention of selling an ebook on speed reading was to make money not lose $100 a month. So what can we do?We can raise the price of our ebook!How much would our ebook have to cost for us to at least break even in Google?
1.215 customers per month * X = $123.93
Since we want to make at least $123.93 in revenue to cover our Adwords expenses, and we know we can maybe get 1.215 customers per month.
Solve for X.
X = $102 $102 just for my ebook!?
Exactly.
If you want to start making money selling some kind of “speed reading” product on Google, you need to be charging your customers at least $102 a shot. So a 40 page ebook doesn't sound like it's going to cut it. As Amy pointed out at the beginning, we can use this price to justify what kind of product we need to sell. This might dash our dreams of selling an ebook, but now we know we have to think bigger. I can't just sell an ebook for $102. I'm going to have to create some kind of online video course perhaps. Maybe I could create a software program to help speed readers practice. Etc. Knowing the minimum price I'll need to charge actually helps me craft what it is that I need to create in order to make money. This is the reverse of how many people approach creating a product.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This thinking was inspired by Tim Ferris' Muse Math.You can boil this whole post down into the simple formula above to find the price you need to charge people.
(Searches per Month * Click Thru Ratio * Conversion Ratio * Revenue per Customer) = (Searches per Month * Click Thru Ratio * Cost Per Click)
(Conversion Ratio * Revenue per Customer) = (Cost Per Click)
so…
Revenue per Customer = (Cost per Click)/(Conversion Ratio) And it's not too far out of whack to assume a conversion ratio of 0.015.
Frequently Asked Questions or Made ArgumentsBut my product is going to spread virally. I won't need Adwords. Ok. Great. But it took more than 2 years for Pinterest to “spread virally”. And then there's companies like 37signals? They have hundred of thousands of blog readers and fans. And they still use advertising on places like Google to reach out to new customers. Ok, this is for an ebook; I make web apps.
It's the same logic. For example, you plan on charging your customers per month? Figure out what what kind of revenue you need to make per customer with the formula above and divide by 12. 12 being the assumed lifetime of one of your customers in months. Then you'll roughly have a monthly price you'll need to charge to break even on Adwords.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This isn't the holy grail of helping you figure out what you need to make. And Adwords isn't the end-all be-all of how you'll market your product. Maybe word of mouth will really be your best move. But for a lot of ideas out there, this isn't a bad place to start to consider whether you're thinking big enough to be able to charge customers what you'll need to charge to make a living for yourself using something like “conventional” pay per click advertising.
(轉自Mr.6)
這位作者很有意思，他竟然懂得使用搜尋引擎系統，分析出會搜尋到他的潛在客戶大約是多少人，再乘以一個點擊率（即多少人看到廣告會點進來，他是算1%），再乘以轉換率（即多少人點進來會真的購買，他是算1.5%），就是可能購買的人數，然後，他可以計算出下這麼多廣告所需要的廣告成本，拿這個成本去除以可能購買的人數，就是最低的定價了。
這個假設是在點擊率與轉換率真的如他所預期的情況下，少估一點、多估一點，都會影響定價的準確性，但它至少是一個很好的開始──我們是有可能透過周邊的蛛絲馬跡，去巧妙的做出「定價」，然後再反向來確認我們的應投入成本，如果環境改變了，此「定價」亦會改變，以致於投入成本也可以早一步的開始調整。
要如何配置才可以充份且有效的配置人力？ 不斷的舉辦小型的徵才說明會，讓潛在的人員可以聽到新事業部的機會，在每場活動中，調整定價，丟出來給潛在的應徵者嘗試，看看哪一個方向最讓人們喜愛，也從這邊去「反向」定出價格與預期目標。對一個人事成本相對高的公司來說，管理，不再只是徵才、教育訓練、留人策略這些而已，它背後要有絕對的「財務策略」，而這個財務支持，不能被動的等著市場的反應，而要「主動出擊」，透過其他巧妙的方式去預期可以的定價，再反向回來確認自己能否達成自設的目標、客戶的期望，而此定價可能是依著趨勢的變動而浮動的，這樣公司才能在保持價格競爭力的同時，能夠符合股東對公司的期望──賺錢！
Amy brings up a great point and motivates me to finish a post I've had sitting around for awhile. Most folks try and make something and then they slap a price on it. Often folks then discover some nasty things about their product. Either the market can't bear a product at that price, or they aren't sitting on a profitable business.
One tool in your arsenal which I rarely ever see used is to use a product's theoretical price to frame what you need to build. So how do you come up with that theoretical price ahead of time?If you plan on making a big part of your living from selling something online, I have a very interesting strategy for you.
The too long; didn't read of it is this:
1.Look up the cost per click of a term from Google Adwords that you conceivably will use to advertise your product.
2.Take that cost per click amount and divide by 0.015.
3.You're done. Build something to justify charging that amount.
Steps 1 and 2 above will give you a number that is a pretty decent ballpark of what you'd need to make on average from a single customer so that you can at least break even on Google Adwords expenses.
Let me show you how valuable this can be by telling you a story of a product/business I've considered starting, and then I'll show you how this formula is developed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I love reading. I especially love speed reading. You can't speed read everything, because it takes some of the fun out of reading things like fiction. But for business books, blog posts, and magazine articles, it's a huge time saver. So I'd like to distill my speed reading knowledge into a product and sell it. I think I want to make a short ebook on speed reading and maybe sell it for $20. Sound good?We'll let's just cool our jets before making this book and see what Adwords can tell us.
If you go over to Adwords you can use their Keyword Tool (you'll need an Adwords account to get price data). Let's look up the exact phrase “speed reading”[speed reading] gets: 8,100 searches a month in the US on Google. $1.53 per click Knowing this data we can start making some assumptions.
Let's pretend I took an Adword out to my speed reading landing page or online store. Let's pretend my ad gets a 1% click through rate. That means 1 out of 100 people who might see my ad in Google click it. That's a pretty conservative estimate, but not a bad place to start. So how many clicks (visitors) will we get per month:
8,100 * 0.01 = 81 clicks
How much will we end up spending on ads then to reach all 81 potential customers? 81 clicks * $1.53 per click = $123.93
Now let's pretend we can convert 1.5% of those visitors to customers. 1.5% is fairly average conversion rate that we could hope to achieve.
81 clicks * 0.015 = 1.215 customers per month
So to figure out our product revenue, we'll make:
1.215 * $20 = $24.30 per month!
Woah, hold on. Am I reading this right?Yep.
It's going to cost you on average $100 a month to make $24.30 in revenue a month.Well my intention of selling an ebook on speed reading was to make money not lose $100 a month. So what can we do?We can raise the price of our ebook!How much would our ebook have to cost for us to at least break even in Google?
1.215 customers per month * X = $123.93
Since we want to make at least $123.93 in revenue to cover our Adwords expenses, and we know we can maybe get 1.215 customers per month.
Solve for X.
X = $102 $102 just for my ebook!?
Exactly.
If you want to start making money selling some kind of “speed reading” product on Google, you need to be charging your customers at least $102 a shot. So a 40 page ebook doesn't sound like it's going to cut it. As Amy pointed out at the beginning, we can use this price to justify what kind of product we need to sell. This might dash our dreams of selling an ebook, but now we know we have to think bigger. I can't just sell an ebook for $102. I'm going to have to create some kind of online video course perhaps. Maybe I could create a software program to help speed readers practice. Etc. Knowing the minimum price I'll need to charge actually helps me craft what it is that I need to create in order to make money. This is the reverse of how many people approach creating a product.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This thinking was inspired by Tim Ferris' Muse Math.You can boil this whole post down into the simple formula above to find the price you need to charge people.
(Searches per Month * Click Thru Ratio * Conversion Ratio * Revenue per Customer) = (Searches per Month * Click Thru Ratio * Cost Per Click)
(Conversion Ratio * Revenue per Customer) = (Cost Per Click)
so…
Revenue per Customer = (Cost per Click)/(Conversion Ratio) And it's not too far out of whack to assume a conversion ratio of 0.015.
Frequently Asked Questions or Made ArgumentsBut my product is going to spread virally. I won't need Adwords. Ok. Great. But it took more than 2 years for Pinterest to “spread virally”. And then there's companies like 37signals? They have hundred of thousands of blog readers and fans. And they still use advertising on places like Google to reach out to new customers. Ok, this is for an ebook; I make web apps.
It's the same logic. For example, you plan on charging your customers per month? Figure out what what kind of revenue you need to make per customer with the formula above and divide by 12. 12 being the assumed lifetime of one of your customers in months. Then you'll roughly have a monthly price you'll need to charge to break even on Adwords.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This isn't the holy grail of helping you figure out what you need to make. And Adwords isn't the end-all be-all of how you'll market your product. Maybe word of mouth will really be your best move. But for a lot of ideas out there, this isn't a bad place to start to consider whether you're thinking big enough to be able to charge customers what you'll need to charge to make a living for yourself using something like “conventional” pay per click advertising.
(轉自Mr.6)
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